The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory?
Current odds: Other 50%, Flávio Bolsonaro <4% 40%, Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% 27%, Lula da Silva <4% 22%, Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% 8%, Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ 3%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory?
Other is the market favorite at 50%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $2.7M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory?
$2.7M has been traded on this market in total, including $330K in the last 24 hours, with $767K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 26, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory resolve?
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly betwee
Where can I bet on Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.