As of today the market prices Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30 at 1% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? odds
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30??
The market currently prices this at 1% (1¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? is the market favorite at 1%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $2.1M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30??
$2.1M has been traded on this market in total, including $38K in the last 24 hours, with $217K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifi
Where can I bet on Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.