Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

As of today the market prices Will Russia capture Bilytske by... at 82% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
December 3182%82¢$13K
September 3018%18¢$106K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building located at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the building is shaded red under a below-specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the building under the above-specified conditions, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP1.png Building Location in Bilytske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP2.png Bilytske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/J8DsAv3gKWbD4DSD9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Russia capture Bilytske by...??
The market currently prices this at 82% (82¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?
December 31 is the market favorite at 82%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $414K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will Russia capture Bilytske by...??
$414K has been traded on this market in total, including $39K in the last 24 hours, with $18K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will Russia capture Bilytske by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will Russia capture Bilytske by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building located at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the building is shaded red under a below-specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, sha
Where can I bet on Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

Related politics markets

All Politics markets on Polymarket →

Track every Polymarket market on the markets page, or see who is trading them on the leaderboard.