Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Yulia Navalnaya leads at 11% across 20 outcomes, with $23.0M traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Yulia Navalnaya11%11¢$278K
UNRWA7%$2.0M
Volodymyr Zelenskyy7%$763K
Pope Leo XIV6%$796K
Donald Trump3%$4.2M
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani3%$771K
International Court of Justice2%$892K
António Guterres2%$613K
Narendra Modi2%$671K
Julian Assange1%$843K
Greta Thunberg1%$1.4M
Elon Musk1%$1.1M
Khaled Mashal1%$859K
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan1%$1.0M
Xi Jinping1%$1.4M

5 more outcomes on the full market page.

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026?
Current odds: Yulia Navalnaya 11%, UNRWA 7%, Volodymyr Zelenskyy 7%, Pope Leo XIV 6%, Donald Trump 3%, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani 3%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026?
Yulia Navalnaya is the market favorite at 11%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $23.0M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026?
$23.0M has been traded on this market in total, including $34K in the last 24 hours, with $2.4M of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 10, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 resolve?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners
Where can I bet on Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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