As of today the market prices Moscow air traffic suspended by... at 74% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russian government or aviation authorities suspend departures and arrivals at all three of the following Moscow airports at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The relevant airports are:
- Sheremetyevo (SVO);
- Domodedovo (DME); and
- Vnukovo (VKO).
A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Suspensions described as "temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures" at the relevant airports by Russian authorities will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Russian government and Russian aviation authorities, including the Rosaviatsiya federal air transport agency; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Moscow air traffic suspended by...??
The market currently prices this at 74% (74¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Moscow air traffic suspended by...?
August 31 is the market favorite at 74%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $5K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Moscow air traffic suspended by...??
$5K has been traded on this market in total, including $484 in the last 24 hours, with $807 of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Moscow air traffic suspended by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on August 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Moscow air traffic suspended by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russian government or aviation authorities suspend departures and arrivals at all three of the following Moscow airports at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The relevant airports are:
- Sheremetyevo (SVO);
- Domodedovo (DME); and
- Vnukovo (VKO).
A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM
Where can I bet on Moscow air traffic suspended by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.