Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
As of today the market prices Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by... at 5% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? odds
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...??
The market currently prices this at 5% (5¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 31 is the market favorite at 5%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $67.5M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...??
$67.5M has been traded on this market in total, including $273K in the last 24 hours, with $489K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being esta
Where can I bet on Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.