4.3-4.6% leads at 44% across 9 outcomes, with $9K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026??
Current odds: 4.3-4.6% 44%, 4.6-4.9% 39%, 4.0-4.3% 13%, 4.9-5.2% 9%, 3.7-4.0% 1%, <3.4% 0%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
4.3-4.6% is the market favorite at 44%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $9K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026??
$9K has been traded on this market in total, including $71 in the last 24 hours, with $21K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 20, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026? resolve?
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve thi
Where can I bet on China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.