UK Recession in 2026?

As of today the market prices UK Recession in 2026 at 16% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.

UK Recession in 2026? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
UK Recession in 2026?16%16¢$7K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q1 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters. Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered. This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify. This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the GDP first quarterly estimate, UK for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the GDP quarterly national accounts, UK release for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time. The resolution source for this market will be the Office for National Statistics, specifically its "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" and "GDP quarterly national accounts, UK" releases for the relevant quarters.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for UK Recession in 2026??
The market currently prices this at 16% (16¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will UK Recession in 2026?
UK Recession in 2026? is the market favorite at 16%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $7K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on UK Recession in 2026??
$7K has been traded on this market in total, including $314 in the last 24 hours, with $776 of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does UK Recession in 2026? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does UK Recession in 2026? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q1 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters. Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered. This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant r
Where can I bet on UK Recession in 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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