2.0–2.5% leads at 43% across 6 outcomes, with $64K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for GDP growth in 2026?
Current odds: 2.0–2.5% 43%, 1.5–2.0% 27%, >2.5% 14%, <0.5% 13%, 1.0–1.5% 6%, 0.5–1.0% 1%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in GDP growth in 2026?
2.0–2.5% is the market favorite at 43%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $64K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on GDP growth in 2026?
$64K has been traded on this market in total, including $2K in the last 24 hours, with $3K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does GDP growth in 2026 resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 29, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does GDP growth in 2026 resolve?
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this fig
Where can I bet on GDP growth in 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.