Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Renan Santos leads at 60% across 17 outcomes, with $482K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Renan Santos60%60¢$162K
Ronaldo Caiado22%22¢$37K
Flávio Bolsonaro8%$22K
Romeu Zema5%$19K
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva1%$10K
Fernando Haddad1%$18K
Ratinho Júnior1%$101K
Tarcisio de Freitas0%$7K
Jair Bolsonaro0%$7K
Michelle Bolsonaro0%$11K
Eduardo Bolsonaro0%$44K
Camilo Santana0%$11K
Geraldo Alckmin0%$8K
Aldo Rebelo0%$9K
Eduardo Leite0%$8K

2 more outcomes on the full market page.

Market details

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place?
Current odds: Renan Santos 60%, Ronaldo Caiado 22%, Flávio Bolsonaro 8%, Romeu Zema 5%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 1%, Fernando Haddad 1%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place?
Renan Santos is the market favorite at 60%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $482K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place?
$482K has been traded on this market in total, including $714 in the last 24 hours, with $294K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 4, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place resolve?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
Where can I bet on Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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