Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Augusto Cury leads at 53% across 19 outcomes, with $1.1M traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Augusto Cury53%53¢$159K
Renan Santos40%40¢$297K
Ronaldo Caiado5%$117K
Flávio Bolsonaro2%$69K
Romeu Zema1%$52K
Pablo Marçal1%$53K
Tarcisio de Freitas0%$17K
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva0%$50K
Jair Bolsonaro0%$16K
Fernando Haddad0%$23K
Michelle Bolsonaro0%$21K
Eduardo Bolsonaro0%$46K
Ratinho Júnior0%$104K
Camilo Santana0%$13K
Geraldo Alckmin0%$12K

4 more outcomes on the full market page.

Market details

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place?
Current odds: Augusto Cury 53%, Renan Santos 40%, Ronaldo Caiado 5%, Flávio Bolsonaro 2%, Romeu Zema 1%, Pablo Marçal 1%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place?
Augusto Cury is the market favorite at 53%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $1.1M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place?
$1.1M has been traded on this market in total, including $14K in the last 24 hours, with $494K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 4, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place resolve?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
Where can I bet on Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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