This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31??
Current odds: 30+ 6%, 40+ 4%, 50+ 3%, 80+ 1%, 60+ 0%, 100+ 0%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+ is the market favorite at 6%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $1.6M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31??
$1.6M has been traded on this market in total, including $111K in the last 24 hours, with $169K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on July 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or on
Where can I bet on Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.