As of today the market prices Will Russia invade another country in 2026 at 9% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will Russia invade another country in 2026??
The market currently prices this at 9% (9¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? is the market favorite at 9%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $351K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will Russia invade another country in 2026??
$351K has been traded on this market in total, including $1K in the last 24 hours, with $61K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will Russia invade another country in 2026? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will Russia invade another country in 2026? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Where can I bet on Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.