Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
As of today the market prices Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027 at 11% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? odds
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Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027??
The market currently prices this at 11% (11¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? is the market favorite at 11%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $138K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027??
$138K has been traded on this market in total, including $100 in the last 24 hours, with $1K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? resolve?
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Where can I bet on Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.