Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX leads at 87% across 13 outcomes, with $4.9M traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
SpaceX87%87¢$559K
xAI26%26¢
Anthropic14%14¢$663K
OpenAI1%1¢$445K
ByteDance0%0¢$172K
Stripe0%0¢$97K
Databricks0%0¢$580K
SHEIN0%0¢$564K
Waymo0%0¢$310K
Revolut0%0¢$627K
Discord0%0¢$170K
Perplexity AI0%0¢$103K
Kraken0%0¢$651K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Largest IPO by market cap in 2026??
Current odds: SpaceX 87%, xAI 26%, Anthropic 14%, OpenAI 1%, ByteDance 0%, Stripe 0%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX is the market favorite at 87%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $4.9M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Largest IPO by market cap in 2026??
$4.9M has been traded on this market in total, including $5K in the last 24 hours, with $838K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? resolve?
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page.
Where can I bet on Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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