As of today the market prices Natural Disaster in 2026 at 18% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Natural Disaster in 2026??
The market currently prices this at 18% (18¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Natural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026? is the market favorite at 18%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $228K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Natural Disaster in 2026??
$228K has been traded on this market in total, including $224 in the last 24 hours, with $643 of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Natural Disaster in 2026? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Natural Disaster in 2026? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Where can I bet on Natural Disaster in 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.