Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

June 30, 2027 leads at 35% across 3 outcomes, with $550K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
June 30, 202735%35¢$24K
March 31, 202720%20¢$97K
December 313%3¢$216K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png Train Station Location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...??
Current odds: June 30, 2027 35%, March 31, 2027 20%, December 31 3%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
June 30, 2027 is the market favorite at 35%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $550K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...??
$550K has been traded on this market in total, including $8K in the last 24 hours, with $18K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next final
Where can I bet on Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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