Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?

March 31, 2027 leads at 38% across 3 outcomes, with $136K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
March 31, 202738%38¢$19K
December 3112%12¢$94K
November 304%4¢$3K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.475882° N, 37.082566° E in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location in Dobropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia1-6bc31d8213.png Dobropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia%202-daa3abcc03.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/GzbpmgPN3LpxzvrcA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...??
Current odds: March 31, 2027 38%, December 31 12%, November 30 4%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?
March 31, 2027 is the market favorite at 38%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $136K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...??
$136K has been traded on this market in total, including $813 in the last 24 hours, with $18K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.475882° N, 37.082566° E in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next
Where can I bet on Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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