Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela leads at 27% across 16 outcomes, with $323K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Venezuela27%27¢$19K
Lebanon25%25¢$90K
Saudi Arabia14%14¢$46K
Indonesia11%11¢$14K
Cuba9%$6K
Syria9%$17K
Kuwait9%$9K
Tunisia7%$12K
Bangladesh7%$8K
Pakistan6%$4K
Iraq5%$12K
Malaysia5%$11K
Iran5%$10K
North Korea3%$18K
Afghanistan3%$15K

1 more outcomes on the full market page.

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31??
Current odds: Venezuela 27%, Lebanon 25%, Saudi Arabia 14%, Indonesia 11%, Cuba 9%, Syria 9%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Venezuela is the market favorite at 27%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $323K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31??
$323K has been traded on this market in total, including $4K in the last 24 hours, with $96K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Where can I bet on Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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