December 31 leads at 24% across 4 outcomes, with $8.4M traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? odds
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...??
Current odds: December 31 24%, September 30 16%, August 31 8%, July 31 1%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31 is the market favorite at 24%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $8.4M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...??
$8.4M has been traded on this market in total, including $84K in the last 24 hours, with $320K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revision
Where can I bet on Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.