Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Druzkhivka leads at 19% across 7 outcomes, with $1.9M traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Druzkhivka19%19¢$470K
Sloviansk6%6¢$198K
Kramatorsk5%5¢$313K
Kherson3%3¢$22K
Sumy2%2¢$92K
Zaporizhia2%2¢$235K
Kharkiv1%1¢$130K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of the specified city or settlement between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Which cities will Russia enter by December 31??
Current odds: Druzkhivka 19%, Sloviansk 6%, Kramatorsk 5%, Kherson 3%, Sumy 2%, Zaporizhia 2%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Druzkhivka is the market favorite at 19%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $1.9M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Which cities will Russia enter by December 31??
$1.9M has been traded on this market in total, including $1K in the last 24 hours, with $57K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of the specified city or settlement between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full
Where can I bet on Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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