This market will resolve to "Yes" if the general fertility rate (births per 1,000 women aged 15–44) in the United States in 2026 is equal to or greater than the listed value, as reported in the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) annual provisional births report for 2026, meaning the first NCHS report that presents provisional birth data for the full calendar year 2026, regardless of its exact title or format (see 2025 example, “Births: Provisional Data for 2025”: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr043.pdf), estimated to be released in April 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Provisional counts or estimates covering only part of 2026, and full-year figures published only in data dashboards, data files, or statistical tables rather than in such a report, will not be considered.
The report is expected to be made available here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htm
If NCHS does not release its annual provisional births report for 2026 by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: The relevant data will be the general fertility rate in the United States in 2026 as stated in the annual provisional births report for 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of this report will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women)?
Current odds: 51.0+ 91%, 51.5+ 83%, 52.0+ 53%, 52.5+ 25%, 53.0+ 19%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women)?
51.0+ is the market favorite at 91%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $8K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women)?
$8K has been traded on this market in total, including $38 in the last 24 hours, with $2K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women) resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on May 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women) resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the general fertility rate (births per 1,000 women aged 15–44) in the United States in 2026 is equal to or greater than the listed value, as reported in the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) annual provisional births report for 2026, meaning the first NCHS report that presents provisional birth data for the full calendar year 2026, regardless of its exact title or format (see 2025 example, “Births: Provisional Data for 2025”: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr043.pdf), estimated to be released in April 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Provisional counts or estimates covering only part of 2026, and full-year figures publi
Where can I bet on US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women)?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.