As of today the market prices Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by... at 19% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...??
The market currently prices this at 19% (19¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?
March 31, 2027 is the market favorite at 19%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $300K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...??
$300K has been traded on this market in total, including $1K in the last 24 hours, with $22K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on April 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Where can I bet on Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.