As of today the market prices Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026 at 4% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026??
The market currently prices this at 4% (4¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? is the market favorite at 4%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $122K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026??
$122K has been traded on this market in total, including $24 in the last 24 hours, with $10K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 3
Where can I bet on Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.