This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2??
Current odds: 1 56%, 2 31%, 3 13%, 4 3%, 5 3%, >5 3%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2?
1 is the market favorite at 56%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $20K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2??
$20K has been traded on this market in total, including $18K in the last 24 hours, with $7K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on August 3, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2? resolve?
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on
Where can I bet on How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.