1.20–1.24ºC leads at 88% across 6 outcomes, with $49K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)?
Current odds: 1.20–1.24ºC 88%, 1.15–1.19ºC 7%, 1.25–1.29ºC 6%, >1.29ºC 3%, <1.10ºC 1%, 1.10–1.14ºC 0%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)?
1.20–1.24ºC is the market favorite at 88%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $49K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)?
$49K has been traded on this market in total, including $2K in the last 24 hours, with $14K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on August 1, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) resolve?
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information
Where can I bet on July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.