September 15 leads at 90% across 20 outcomes, with $477K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
| Outcome | Chance | Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 15 | 90% | 90¢ | $762 |
| September 11 | 81% | 81¢ | $9K |
| September 16 | 72% | 72¢ | $9K |
| September 12 | 58% | 58¢ | $29K |
| September 14 | 52% | 52¢ | $34K |
| September 18 | 52% | 52¢ | |
| September 25 | 52% | 52¢ | |
| September 27 | 52% | 52¢ | $12K |
| September 13 | 51% | 51¢ | $11K |
| September 22 | 51% | 51¢ | |
| September 23 | 51% | 51¢ | |
| September 24 | 51% | 51¢ | |
| September 26 | 51% | 51¢ | $36K |
| September 30 | 51% | 51¢ | $30K |
| September 19 | 50% | 50¢ | $25K |
5 more outcomes on the full market page.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
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