This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from November 2, 2026, through November 8, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of November 2??
Current odds: 25-29 50%, 30-34 41%, 35-39 40%, 20-24 21%, <20 13%, 40+ 3%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of November 2?
25-29 is the market favorite at 50%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $3K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of November 2??
$3K has been traded on this market in total, including $102 in the last 24 hours, with $3K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of November 2? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 9, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of November 2? resolve?
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from November 2, 2026, through November 8, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the en
Where can I bet on How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of November 2?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.