1st hottest leads at 87% across 4 outcomes, with $119K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record??
Current odds: 1st hottest 87%, 3rd hottest 8%, 2nd hottest 6%, 4th or lower 1%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest is the market favorite at 87%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $119K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record??
$119K has been traded on this market in total, including $3K in the last 24 hours, with $13K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on July 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record? resolve?
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided b
Where can I bet on 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.