As of today the market prices Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by... at 10% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...? odds
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...??
The market currently prices this at 10% (10¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 31 is the market favorite at 10%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $3.5M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...??
$3.5M has been traded on this market in total, including $1K in the last 24 hours, with $141K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for
Where can I bet on Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.