Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

As of today the market prices Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 at 12% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?12%12¢$267K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026??
The market currently prices this at 12% (12¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? is the market favorite at 12%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $267K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026??
$267K has been traded on this market in total, including $1K in the last 24 hours, with $9K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ha
Where can I bet on Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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