As of today the market prices Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027 at 49% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
| Outcome | Chance | Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027? | 49% | 49¢ | $4K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Swiss Federal Assembly adopts a federal act establishing the capital requirement described below in final votes in both the National Council and the Council of States between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The adopted act must include a requirement for systemically important banks to back all or a positive portion of the book value of their participations in foreign subsidiaries with common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital held at the Swiss parent bank, including through an equivalent deduction of that value from the parent bank's CET1 capital. Any federal act containing this requirement will qualify, regardless of its title, parliamentary business number, whether it amends the Banking Act or another law, or whether it results from a replacement bill, a split bill, or a broader legislative package. The required percentage and any other provisions will not affect resolution, provided this requirement is included in the adopted act. A requirement under which only a portion of the book value must be backed with CET1 capital, with the remainder backed by other instruments (e.g., AT1 capital), will also qualify. An adopted act that does not contain this requirement will not qualify. Adoption in the final votes of both chambers is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. Publication in the Federal Gazette, the expiry of the 100-day optional referendum period, the outcome of any referendum, and the law's entry into force are not required and will have no bearing on this market. Approval by only one chamber, committee decisions, or agreement reached during the reconciliation procedure or through a conciliation conference will not qualify unless the act is subsequently adopted in final votes by both chambers within this market's timeframe. Rejection or termination of any particular bill will not independently trigger a "No" resolution before the deadline; a qualifying act adopted through another bill will still count. If no qualifying act is adopted within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Swiss Federal Assembly, including the record of final votes published on parlament.ch; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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