Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?

As of today the market prices Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by... at 16% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.

Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
December 3116%16¢$72K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, (50.284808° N, 36.938428° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Vovchansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Vovchansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vovchansk.png The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...??
The market currently prices this at 16% (16¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?
December 31 is the market favorite at 16%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $995K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...??
$995K has been traded on this market in total, including $2K in the last 24 hours, with $2K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, (50.284808° N, 36.938428° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Vovchansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precise
Where can I bet on Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

Related politics markets

All Politics markets on Polymarket →

Track every Polymarket market on the markets page, or see who is trading them on the leaderboard.