As of today the market prices Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027 at 14% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? odds
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027??
The market currently prices this at 14% (14¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? is the market favorite at 14%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $2.2M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027??
$2.2M has been traded on this market in total, including $13K in the last 24 hours, with $213K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Where can I bet on Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.