Who will die in Spider-Man: Brand New Day?

Michelle "MJ" Jones leads at 38% across 7 outcomes, with $37 traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Who will die in Spider-Man: Brand New Day? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Michelle "MJ" Jones38%38¢$6
Bruce Banner38%38¢
Lonnie Lincoln38%38¢
Peter Parker (Tom Holland)23%23¢$25
Ned Leeds14%14¢
Frank Castle11%11¢
Mac Gargan11%11¢$5

Market details

Resolution rules

Spider-Man: Brand New Day is scheduled to premiere on July 31, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "Spider-Man: Brand New Day". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will still qualify. Deaths occurring in any timeline or dimension depicted in "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" will count toward resolution. Flashback scenes showing a character alive before their death, as well as dream sequences, hallucinations, or visions of dead characters, will not affect resolution. Characters who are confirmed dead before "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" begins during the film will not count toward this market’s resolution. If a character’s fate is deliberately left ambiguous, it will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. Only deaths confirmed by the end of "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" will qualify. Only events depicted in the official "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" film will count toward resolution. Post-credits scenes count if they are part of the official film, but supplementary materials such as podcasts, comics, books, or other media do not count unless they are explicitly referenced within the film itself. The market will resolve according to the initial theatrical release of "Spider-Man: Brand New Day". If no theatrical release occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Who will die in Spider-Man: Brand New Day??
Current odds: Michelle "MJ" Jones 38%, Bruce Banner 38%, Lonnie Lincoln 38%, Peter Parker (Tom Holland) 23%, Ned Leeds 14%, Frank Castle 11%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Who will die in Spider-Man: Brand New Day?
Michelle "MJ" Jones is the market favorite at 38%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $37 through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Who will die in Spider-Man: Brand New Day??
$37 has been traded on this market in total, including $15 in the last 24 hours, with $321 of resting liquidity in the order book.
How does Who will die in Spider-Man: Brand New Day? resolve?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day is scheduled to premiere on July 31, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "Spider-Man: Brand New Day". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will still qualify. Deaths occurring in any timeline or dimension depicted in "Spider-Man: Bran
Where can I bet on Who will die in Spider-Man: Brand New Day?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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