Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September?

United States leads at 70% across 7 outcomes, with $1K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
United States70%70¢$1K
Peru67%67¢$20
Philippines66%66¢$19
Indonesia55%55¢$79
Mexico48%48¢$1
Chile31%31¢
Japan30%30¢

Market details

Resolution rules

This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify. Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first. If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point. The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September??
Current odds: United States 70%, Peru 67%, Philippines 66%, Indonesia 55%, Mexico 48%, Chile 31%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September?
United States is the market favorite at 70%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $1K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September??
$1K has been traded on this market in total, including $150 in the last 24 hours, with $640 of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 4, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September? resolve?
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify. Revisions to
Where can I bet on Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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