Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?

Japan leads at 92% across 7 outcomes, with $10K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Japan92%92¢$2K
Indonesia28%28¢$2K
Chile25%25¢$905
United States24%24¢$879
Mexico15%15¢$2K
Peru14%14¢$985
Philippines12%12¢$870

Market details

Resolution rules

This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify. Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first. If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after November 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point. The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October??
Current odds: Japan 92%, Indonesia 28%, Chile 25%, United States 24%, Mexico 15%, Peru 14%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?
Japan is the market favorite at 92%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $10K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October??
$10K has been traded on this market in total, including $1K in the last 24 hours, with $532 of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October? resolve?
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify. Revisions to a
Where can I bet on Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

Related peru markets

All Peru markets on Polymarket →

Track every Polymarket market on the markets page, or see who is trading them on the leaderboard.