When will the Danube River return to normal levels?
October 1 - 31, 2026 leads at 38% across 4 outcomes, with $38K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
When will the Danube River return to normal levels? odds
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for When will the Danube River return to normal levels??
Current odds: October 1 - 31, 2026 38%, September 15 - 30, 2026 31%, Does not return by November 1, 2026 28%, September 1 - 14, 2026 4%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in When will the Danube River return to normal levels?
October 1 - 31, 2026 is the market favorite at 38%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $38K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on When will the Danube River return to normal levels??
$38K has been traded on this market in total, including $3K in the last 24 hours, with $5K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does When will the Danube River return to normal levels? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does When will the Danube River return to normal levels? resolve?
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to nor
Where can I bet on When will the Danube River return to normal levels?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.