↑ 4.25% leads at 34% across 20 outcomes, with $1.7M traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for What will Fed Rate hit before 2027??
Current odds: ↑ 4.25% 34%, ↑ 4.5% 12%, ↓ 3.25% 12%, ↓ 3.0% 6%, ↓ 2.25% 5%, ↑ 4.75% 4%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↑ 4.25% is the market favorite at 34%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $1.7M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on What will Fed Rate hit before 2027??
$1.7M has been traded on this market in total, including $5K in the last 24 hours, with $167K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? resolve?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
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Where can I bet on What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.