US Tornadoes in October 2026

35 - 59 leads at 97% across 5 outcomes, with $38K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

US Tornadoes in October 2026 odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
35 - 5997%97¢$13K
20 - 342%2¢$6K
60 - 891%1¢$9K
90 or more1%1¢$6K
Under 200%0¢$3K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on November 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US Tornadoes in October 2026?
Current odds: 35 - 59 97%, 20 - 34 2%, 60 - 89 1%, 90 or more 1%, Under 20 0%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in US Tornadoes in October 2026?
35 - 59 is the market favorite at 97%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $38K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on US Tornadoes in October 2026?
$38K has been traded on this market in total, with $5K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does US Tornadoes in October 2026 resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 11, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does US Tornadoes in October 2026 resolve?
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on November 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release
Where can I bet on US Tornadoes in October 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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