U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
As of today the market prices U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31 at 5% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? odds
Outcome
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Volume
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31??
The market currently prices this at 5% (5¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? is the market favorite at 5%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $179K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31??
$179K has been traded on this market in total, with $11K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Do
Where can I bet on U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.