December 31 leads at 92% across 3 outcomes, with $565K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin.
Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify.
To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for US imports Russian diesel by...??
Current odds: December 31 92%, November 30 87%, October 31 3%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in US imports Russian diesel by...?
December 31 is the market favorite at 92%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $565K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on US imports Russian diesel by...??
$565K has been traded on this market in total, including $31K in the last 24 hours, with $53K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does US imports Russian diesel by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 1, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does US imports Russian diesel by...? resolve?
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin.
Imported to the United States re
Where can I bet on US imports Russian diesel by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.