1.5–2.0% leads at 43% across 7 outcomes, with $21K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for US GDP growth in Q2 2026??
Current odds: 1.5–2.0% 43%, 2.0–2.5% 31%, 2.5–3.0% 19%, 1.0–1.5% 12%, <1.0% 5%, 3.0–3.5% 3%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
1.5–2.0% is the market favorite at 43%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $21K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on US GDP growth in Q2 2026??
$21K has been traded on this market in total, including $2K in the last 24 hours, with $7K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does US GDP growth in Q2 2026? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on July 30, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does US GDP growth in Q2 2026? resolve?
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the releas
Where can I bet on US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.