As of today the market prices Fed rate hike in 2026 at 78% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Fed rate hike in 2026??
The market currently prices this at 78% (78¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Fed rate hike in 2026?
Fed rate hike in 2026? is the market favorite at 78%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $4.8M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Fed rate hike in 2026??
$4.8M has been traded on this market in total, including $107K in the last 24 hours, with $237K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Fed rate hike in 2026? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 9, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Fed rate hike in 2026? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Where can I bet on Fed rate hike in 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.