This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Fed rate hike by...??
The market currently prices this at 86% (86¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Fed rate hike by...?
October Meeting is the market favorite at 86%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $3.1M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Fed rate hike by...??
$3.1M has been traded on this market in total, including $175K in the last 24 hours, with $64K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Fed rate hike by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 29, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Fed rate hike by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/moneta
Where can I bet on Fed rate hike by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.