Xiaomi leads at 29% across 11 outcomes, with $9K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
| Outcome | Chance | Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xiaomi | 29% | 29¢ | $931 |
| Moonshot | 24% | 24¢ | $1K |
| Alibaba | 23% | 23¢ | $2K |
| Z.ai | 17% | 17¢ | $2K |
| Tencent | 16% | 16¢ | $300 |
| DeepSeek | 4% | 4¢ | $437 |
| MiniMax | 4% | 4¢ | $354 |
| Meituan | 4% | 4¢ | $475 |
| Baidu | 3% | 3¢ | $388 |
| ByteDance | 2% | 2¢ | $264 |
| StepFun | 2% | 2¢ | $247 |
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
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