As of today the market prices Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by... at 3% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Ren Zhengfei was outside China at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside China and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside China occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Ren Zhengfei need not depart China during the market window, nor remain outside China at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside China at market creation, his confirmed presence outside China during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to China.
China is defined as territory administered by the People's Republic of China, including Hong Kong and Macau and excluding Taiwan.
In cases where Ren Zhengfei may have exited Chinese airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than China for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Ren Zhengfei exits Chinese maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by...??
The market currently prices this at 3% (3¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by...?
December 31 is the market favorite at 3%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $9K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by...??
$9K has been traded on this market in total, including $1K in the last 24 hours, with $22K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Ren Zhengfei was outside China at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside China and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside China occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Ren Zhengfei need not depart China during the market window, nor remain outside China at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside China at market creation, his confirmed presence outside China during the window will qualify; likewise, a con
Where can I bet on Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.