>1.54ºC leads at 56% across 6 outcomes, with $10K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for November 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)?
Current odds: >1.54ºC 56%, 1.50–1.54ºC 19%, 1.45–1.49ºC 17%, 1.40–1.44ºC 6%, <1.35ºC 3%, 1.35–1.39ºC 3%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)?
>1.54ºC is the market favorite at 56%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $10K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)?
$10K has been traded on this market in total, including $742 in the last 24 hours, with $13K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) resolve?
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for November 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01
Where can I bet on November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.