As of today the market prices Nicolás Maduro released from custody by... at 7% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...??
The market currently prices this at 7% (7¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
December 31 is the market favorite at 7%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $2.7M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...??
$2.7M has been traded on this market in total, including $7 in the last 24 hours, with $14K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still
Where can I bet on Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.