As of today the market prices Jimmy Lai released by... at 6% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Jimmy Lai released by...??
The market currently prices this at 6% (6¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Jimmy Lai released by...?
December 31, 2026 is the market favorite at 6%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $393K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Jimmy Lai released by...??
$393K has been traded on this market in total, including $1K in the last 24 hours, with $14K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Jimmy Lai released by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Jimmy Lai released by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testif
Where can I bet on Jimmy Lai released by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.