How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

1250+ leads at 93% across 8 outcomes, with $87K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
1250+93%93¢$20K
1200–12497%7¢$16K
1150–11992%2¢$5K
1100–11491%1¢$4K
<9500%0¢$24K
950–9990%0¢$4K
1000–10490%0¢$4K
1050–10990%0¢$10K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count. As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026??
Current odds: 1250+ 93%, 1200–1249 7%, 1150–1199 2%, 1100–1149 1%, <950 0%, 950–999 0%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ is the market favorite at 93%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $87K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026??
$87K has been traded on this market in total, with $16K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 11, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026? resolve?
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count. As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled
Where can I bet on How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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